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Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, leaving out any seasonal trading. Information are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading organizations reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

Nevertheless, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by little falls in January. The markets with the greatest proportion reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 percentage point rise from December 2025) the other services market (45%) the arts, entertainment and recreation market (40%) Roughly 16% of trading services reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point increase compared to December 2025.

For trading companies with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had actually reduced, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) services reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 portion points compared to December 2025. Generally, the percentage of businesses reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the proportion for businesses with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 portion points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading businesses were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to anticipate how business's turnover will actually change once that calendar month concludes.

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Trends between expected turnover and actual turnover have actually broadly moved in the very same instructions, the motions for expectations tend to be bigger. Care needs to be taken when translating expectations concerns, as the workers responding on behalf of services might not have complete oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

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More than one in 5 (21%) trading businesses anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 portion point increase from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared with expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading companies anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, suggesting a small pessimism in organizations expectations.

Nevertheless, the trends have actually broadly followed each other given that the questions were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the portion of organizations expecting turnover to increase peaking after a reduction in January. Larger organizations were more likely to expect an increase in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for organizations with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for organizations with 100 to 249 employees.

For presentational functions, some action alternatives have been eliminated. Information are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Care must be taken when interpreting expectations questions, as the employees reacting on behalf of organizations might not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations. "." represents information not yet readily available.

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The proportion of trading organizations that expected a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported an actual decline in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of businesses anticipating turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has actually stayed significantly lower than the percentage of organizations reporting an actual decline because month since April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to decrease have consistently followed the very same trend, as actual reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading services were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

For trading services with 10 or more employees, expense of labour was the most regularly reported challenge, at 36%. Businesses with 10 to 49 workers were more likely to report cost of labour as a challenge than organizations with 250 or more staff members (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading companies with 10 or more staff members indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026.